Bitaigen Research CryptoQuant’s latest data still shows that, although Bitcoin has recently experienced a brief price rebound, the overall fundamentals and technicals continue to point toward a bearish market structure. The firm’s Bull Score Index—a composite health score that blends fundamental and technical indicators—is currently at just 10 points (out of a maximum of 100), placing it clearly in the bear‑market zone.
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By leveraging multi‑dimensional data from CryptoQuant, TradingView and other sources, we dissect the fundamental and technical signals behind Bitcoin’s recent warm‑up, highlight potential resistance levels and medium‑term bear‑market characteristics, and help readers identify the real risk of bullish traps. The following sections will expand on this analysis.
TradingView data
TradingView’s market records show that last Thursday Bitcoin surged on the Coinbase platform to roughly $74,000, hitting its highest level of the month and briefly crossing above the 50‑day exponential moving average. However, the price quickly reversed, dropping more than $3,000, and by early Friday morning it had slipped back below $71,000.
The Bull Score index remains entrenched in the bearish zone (source: CryptoQuant).
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Bitcoin still faces a new round of downside‑pressure risk
Nick Ruck, a director at LVRG Research, told *Cointelegraph* that the recent market warm‑up has mainly been driven by a resurgence in risk appetite and inflows from ETF‑related funds. He warned, however, that this rally could soon encounter resistance; macro‑level uncertainty and waning momentum have already pushed the price back toward the $71,000 area.
Ruck further explained that, while a temporary bounce is possible in a relatively liquid environment, the prevailing bearish structure still calls for caution. Soft macro signals—such as the slowdown in February non‑farm payroll growth—could once again exert downward pressure on crypto assets.
Bitcoin’s momentum fell about 4.7% after the Thursday peak (source: TradingView).
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Bitcoin may attract fresh buying interest
CryptoQuant notes that the premium on Coinbase has turned positive, reflecting a revival of U.S. buying interest and contributing to the recent price uptick. The exchange reports that spot‑Bitcoin demand has shifted from contraction to growth; the Coinbase Bitcoin premium, which was deeply negative in early February, has now risen to its highest positive level since October 2023.
At the same time, selling pressure from traders and long‑term holders has eased, largely because unrealized losses have reached their highest level since July 2022. An analyst from SwissBlock added on Friday, “Momentum is entering a critical turning point,” and believes the market is emerging from its most negative‑momentum phase—a shift that often precedes a change in market regime.
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Bitcoin “firmly positioned” in the mid‑bear market
From a liquidity perspective, analyst Woo argues that Bitcoin is “firmly situated in the mid‑bear market.” He explains that after experiencing rapid downside shocks like the recent one, Bitcoin typically enters a consolidation phase and attempts to rebound near key resistance levels. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that since the $126,000 all‑time high reached in October 2022, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 46.82%, trading now around $67,012.
Woo stresses that this price level is not a floor and that further downside remains possible. Sentiment‑monitoring platform Santiment echoed a similar view on Saturday, noting that while “whales” continue to sell, retail investors are actively buying below the $70,000 mark. Santiment points out that when retail buys as whales sell, it often signals that the correction is not yet complete.
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Bitcoin investors’ inflows keep warming up
Woo also points out that, although Bitcoin spiked to $74,000 on Wednesday before retreating to the “mid‑$70K range,” net inflows from investors have been steadily improving since mid‑February. Numerous other voices also maintain that Bitcoin remains in a bear market. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen told *Magazine* that 2026 will be a “bear‑market year” for Bitcoin, making new highs unlikely.
CryptoQuant reiterates, “Even with the recent bounce, Bitcoin remains in a bear market.” Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index briefly rose on Wednesday but quickly fell back into the “extreme fear” zone, further confirming cautious market sentiment.
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Bitcoin’s current rebound faces multiple layers of resistance; short‑term bullish traps may be forming as the asset settles into the mid‑stage of a bear market. For deeper Bitcoin analysis, you can search for past articles by Bitaigen (比特根) or continue browsing the related links below. We appreciate your ongoing interest and support for Bitaigen!
*Disclaimer: Crypto gains may be taxable in your local jurisdiction; please consult a tax professional for advice.*
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