Bitaigen Research 
In this article we systematically examine Bitcoin’s latest technical structure, combine insights from past bull markets with the current market stage, and provide a deep analysis of bullish momentum and key pattern turn‑points. By observing candle‑stage dynamics and the monthly neckline, readers can grasp the potential direction of the long‑term trend. Continue reading for the complete graphical logic and the underlying rationale.
Previous Bull Market and Current Market Stage
Since Bitcoin peaked at roughly $69,000 in 2021, the green Stage 4 shown in the chart clearly illustrates a strong price‑doubling move. Afterwards the market inevitably fell into the red‑shaded correction zone, experiencing the “winter” of 2022‑2023.
The most recent candles have completed the Stage 3 that represents a recovery and are now positioned at the start line of Stage 4. The current price range is roughly $66,005 – $93,771, indicating that bulls have largely shaken off the shadow of the previous bear market.
On the monthly‑close level, as long as the price does not break below the critical neckline, the green block can still extend upward to the right. By comparing the alternating lengths of the green and red blocks, it is evident that this segment remains in an early formation and still has considerable space before reaching the upper boundary of the upward channel. Key turning points are usually accompanied by intense swings in market sentiment, which then produce conspicuous long‑body candlesticks.
Construction and Significance of the Macro Upward Channel
The most striking feature on the chart is the pair of upward‑sloping white parallel lines that together outline a roughly ten‑year upward channel. The lower boundary hugs the lows of each bear market, forming a solid long‑term support level; the upper boundary precisely captures the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull runs.
In technical analysis, such a parallel channel suggests that the underlying asset is in a relatively stable long‑term uptrend. As long as price stays inside the channel, the overall bullish thesis remains largely unchallenged. When the market touches the lower boundary, buying pressure typically gathers quickly; conversely, approaching the upper boundary tends to trigger profit‑taking sell pressure. Investors can monitor the price’s relative position within the channel to assess the current risk‑to‑reward profile.
The geometry of the channel has maintained almost the same inclination for years, implying that large‑scale capital is continuously rotating and guiding the trend. This classic, practical tracking method helps filter out the noise generated by daily volatility.
Four‑Stage Cycle Model from Historical Periods
The chart creator cleverly uses red and green blocks to divide past market movements into four distinct stages. Red blocks correspond to the correction phase after a strong rally or to prolonged bear markets, while green blocks mark the onset of the primary upward leg. Numbers 1‑4 label the sequential evolution of each stage:
- Stage 1 – Initial decline after a peak, weakening market sentiment and the first signs of panic among investors.
- Stage 2 – Bottom‑searching phase, with price oscillating within a range and clear signs of “shake‑out.”
- Stage 3 – Bottom stabilisation and gradual recovery, as buying resumes and confidence slowly returns.
- Stage 4 – Price breaks above the previous high, forming a parabola‑shaped strong bull market—the segment most participants anticipate.
Take the end‑2020 rally to around $19,000 as an example: it entered the red‑shaded correction zone afterward, perfectly illustrating the four‑step rhythm described above. It is worth noting that as the market matures, the transition periods between stages tend to lengthen—early cycles cycled quickly, whereas later transitions become more prolonged and complex.
Reasonableness of the $400,000 Target
The green figure in the upper‑right corner of the chart directly points to a target price of $400,000, derived from extending the upper boundary of the existing upward channel. If historical cycles were to repeat perfectly and the explosive force of Stage 4 were to hit the channel’s top edge, the geometry provides a modest mathematical basis for such a level.
Nevertheless, real‑world financial markets are far more intricate than a simple line‑draw. As total market capitalization expands, the capital required to achieve the same multiple‑fold price increase grows exponentially. Macro‑economic conditions, regulatory policies across jurisdictions, and the degree of participation by traditional financial institutions can all exert profound influence on this projection.
Consequently, the $400,000 figure should be viewed as a scenario based on the premise of a “perfect historical replay.” Relying solely on a single target can lead to poor decision‑making; staggered entry and dynamic position‑sizing are generally more prudent approaches. Moreover, the chart does not display accompanying volume data; a healthy long‑term bullish trend typically needs continuously expanding trading volume for confirmation. Price breakouts without volume support are prone to become false breakouts that trap unsuspecting traders.
This concludes the complete long‑term technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC). For further research on Bitcoin’s long‑term trajectory, please follow additional articles from Bitaigen.
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