Bitaigen Research 
In the latest episode of the Coin Stories podcast, BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes sat down with Natalie Brunell for an interview in which he discussed his timing for Bitcoin exposure and his view on the broader macro environment. Hayes emphasized that, at the moment, he prefers to watch the market rather than commit capital immediately.
“If I only had $1 to invest, would I buy Bitcoin right away? The answer is no – I would wait first.”
He went on to explain that he will only start buying once the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to loosen monetary policy, moves into an accommodative phase, and starts printing money.
“When the central bank starts printing money, that’s when I’ll get in and buy Bitcoin.”
Hayes believes that war itself is not a direct catalyst for Bitcoin; the real driver would be the massive monetary expansion that typically follows. He noted that if the current geopolitical tension continues to intensify, the likelihood of the Fed being forced to print money to support the United States’ war effort will increase.
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In this report we provide an in‑depth analysis of BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes’ unique timing judgment for entering Bitcoin, as well as his assessment of Federal Reserve policy direction and macro‑risk outlook. By examining interview details, readers can better understand potential market inflection points – a read worth taking seriously.
Hayes predicts a $250,000 Bitcoin price in 2026
Regarding future price direction, Hayes still sticks to the $250,000 target he first announced in October of last year. He cautioned that a drop below $60,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, leading to a sharper sell‑off. In fact, on February 6 Bitcoin briefly touched the $60,000 area before modestly recovering.
Hayes also admitted that it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin has already bottomed. At the time of publishing, Bitcoin was trading at $69,926, roughly a 45 % decline from the $126,000 high reached in October. He warned that ongoing geopolitical tension could continue to exert downward pressure on the price.
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Arthur Hayes also mentioned in the interview that a prolonged U.S.–Iran conflict could raise the risk of large‑scale sell‑offs in both equities and Bitcoin. He estimates that the short‑term probability of Bitcoin falling beneath $100,000 is low, but investors should still stay alert for volatility.
At the same time, other industry analysts hold a more optimistic short‑term outlook for Bitcoin. Michaël van de Poppe argues that the Nasdaq’s strong performance has already provided a positive tailwind for Bitcoin. He stated: “Uncertainty has receded dramatically; based on that, I believe Bitcoin and altcoins still have significant upside potential in the near term.”
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In summary, Arthur Hayes’ investment plan clearly revolves around the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy—he will only enter the market when monetary easing becomes evident. For readers who want to follow the details of his “wait‑for‑Fed‑easing” approach, stay tuned to Bitaigen’s (比特根) upcoming coverage.
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